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45,618. This is the number of votes Dina Titus has received in her reelection race in Nevada’s First Congressional District (NV-01). While that was more than enough to earn Rep. Titus a third term in Congress, this number proved fatal to the statewide Democratic candidates.
Why? They count on urban and suburban Clark County votes to win. Because crossover voting isn’t as widespread as it was in Nevada’s past and the rural regions have become increasingly “Blood Red”, Nevada Democrats must now secure big margins in Clark County and winning just enough crossover votes in Washoe County to win statewide.
Attorney General candidate Ross Miller (D) and Secretary of State candidate Kate Marshall (D) both won Washoe County (Marshall by 3.05%, and Miller by 1.40%). Theoretically, they should have won statewide. But because Miller only won Clark County by 5.58% over Adam Laxalt (R) and Kate Marshall actually lost Clark County by 1.35% to Barbara Cegavske (R), both Democrats came up short statewide.
Why? Let’s take a closer look at some State Legislature contests in the urban core and inner suburbs of Clark County. In Assembly District 3 in West Las Vegas, Democrat Nelson Araujo only netted 4,381 votes and scored an underwhelming 55.9% win in the heavily Democratic district. In Assembly District 14, which covers a slice of the Northeast Las Vegas Valley, Democrat Maggie Carlton only netted 3,685 votes and scored a similarly underwhelming 60.48% win in the strongly Democratic district. In Assembly District 16, which covers the UNLV area and much of the Las Vegas Strip, Democrat Heidi Swank only netted 4,190 votes and only won an “easy victory” because she ran unopposed. Same goes for Edgar Flores, who netted a mere 3,388 votes for a “unanimous victory” in the North Las Vegas based Assembly District 28. And in perhaps the most shocking State Assembly result of the year, Democrat Jason Frierson only netted 4,147 votes in the Democratic favoring District 8 in the Southwest Las Vegas Valley… And he lost by 40 votes to John Moore, the Republican candidate who had little money and virtually no name recognition.
In these and other areas typically seen as core Democratic strongholds, very few base Democratic voters turned out. As a result, the overall Clark County numbers were just too low for Ross Miller, Kate Marshall, and Steven Horsford in the Fourth Congressional District (NV-04). Even as they were winning over some swing voters, they weren’t netting enough base voters to pull it out in the end.
Only 31.8% of eligible voters turned out in Nevada. That number is likely much lower in Clark County, as the Las Vegas Valley suffered the lowest turnout in the state. And ultimately, a number of Democratic candidates suffered as a result.
In NV-04, Horsford only barely won the Clark County portion of his district despite Democrats holding a 15.15% registration advantage there. Overall, Democrats have a 10.96% registration advantage in NV-04. Yet because so few voters turned out in the Clark County part of the district, the rural part punched far above its weight and delivered the win to Cresent Hardy.
61.80%. That’s the portion of 2014 general election votes that came from Clark County. In 2012, it was 68.09%. And even in 2010, Clark still made up 64.64% of total turnout. But because only 61.8% of 2014 Nevada votes came from the county that has just over 70% of the state’s population, Democrats suffered mightily. This is something to keep in mind for 2016 and beyond. The numbers simply don’t lie.